Lets begin by cautioning that these surveys dont really reflect the ground realities and are misleading. Not necessarily because it is intended but because of the inefficacy of the science in its current state. Nevertheless it comes as a handy tool to make some meanigful predictions.

NDTV (21/04) report indicates the following:

1) PR will get 7% votes from Cong, 7% votes from TDP and 3% votes from Others.

2) Thus they conclude that PR is getting more than what they all had expected, but this 17% is still not good enough to translate in to (many) seats.

3)Hence PR leader Chiranjeevi will play the role of a king maker this time and not become king.

The fact of the matter is PR will be getting much more than this, particularly from the Congress because the party is in power and the anti incumbancy votes will come to PR. Congress will not get more than 24 to 28% votes this time and i hope to be proved right on the 16th.

But lets assume that these figures given by NDTV are right and then see why PR is still going to win big time.

1) These votes have been categorised by NDTV as Cong / TDP votes that has come to PR. But what about PR’s own votes? Is there any such thing as PR’s own votes - in this elections?

a) Normally when we say that one party’s votes have been grabbed by another, what we mean is the transfer of the hardcore voters of that party to another party. This is what is reflected by the 7%. But there is still a huge volume of voters who are not hardcore / repeated voters of ‘a’ party. Such votes are transitory and change from time to time. Since PR is the most viable alternative this time, these votes will naturally come to PR. Therefore a substantial chunk of this should constitute a huge base of PR’s own vote bank.

b) The above proposition is likely to be contested by some sections, validly so, till the results are out. But there is one more huge chunk of votes which is PR’s and can not be contested. We had talked of a whopping 55 Lakh additional voters this time. Most of these will be first time, young voters. They have not voted for any one and can not be construed as voters
of any party. This is the core of PR’s own vote base even in its first election.

If we assume that 75% of these voters actually vote (considering the reality that it was more of the young voters in the first phase) and of those about 75% vote for PR (considering that all analysts are unanimous on PR’s ability to draw the young voters), it constitutes more than 5% of the total votes. This more than 5% is the PR’s own vote bank even in this
election. That makes it 22% (17% votes of other parties and 5% of our own) and will be a substantial chunk of votes to win many seats. However, this 22% is based on the assumption that NDTV’s findings are correct. Like i said earlier, our actual vote share is definitely more than the 17% that NDTV gives us..

The problem with sampling techniques is that they are bound by certain technicalities. For example, if in a given population there are 50 % women, the sampling will consider 50 % women in their survey. But, the actual percentage of women voters may be more or less. Therefore, the weightage given to young voters in the surveys is suspect. The voting percentage in the first phase of election is more or less the same like last time. There is just 2% more voters this time. But, amongst these, there has been a huge turn out of young voters. Why do you think this is happening, if not for Prajarajyam and its leader’s Charisma and policies. Therefore, our vote share is going to surprise every one when the results are out.

2) There is more good news for PR and its supporters. The above discussion is entirely devoted to the first phase. It covered largely the Telangana region where our party was written off and was considered a non entity. It is in this phase that PR has been given 17% by NDTV and we deduced that a least minimum of 22% will be in our favour.

So, what is in store in the second phase where all analysts are unanimous that we are strong. It is going to be a windfall for PR in the second phase. So, it is almost certain that PR will form the next govt under our leader Chiranjeevi. Chiru will not be the king maker as made out by NDTV but the King himself. Three cheers to Chiru and PR and the people of AP.

- By Uma Vijaykumar